Senegal’s domestic gasoline reserves shall be primarily used to provide electrical energy. Authorities anticipate that home gasoline infrastructure projects will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, offered there isn’t any delay. The monetization of these significant vitality assets is on the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global know-how group Wärtsilä performed in-depth studies that analyse the economic impact of the various gas-to-power methods obtainable to Senegal. Two very different applied sciences are competing to fulfill the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very vital system price variations between the two main gas-to-power technologies the nation is at present contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, fuel engines are actually much better suited than mixed cycle fuel generators to harness power from Senegal’s new gasoline sources cost-effectively, the study reveals. Total price differences between the 2 applied sciences may attain as much as 480 million USD till 2035 depending on situations.
Two competing and really completely different technologies
The state-of-the-art power combine fashions developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised power situations to establish the price optimum method to deliver new era capacity for a selected country, shows that ICE and CCGT applied sciences present vital cost variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program working to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally confirmed and dependable, they’re very different by method of the profiles by which they can operate. CCGT is a know-how that has been developed for the interconnected European electricity markets, the place it can operate at 90% load issue always. On เกจวัดถังแก๊ส , versatile ICE know-how can operate efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to another technology applied sciences that will make up the country’s vitality mix.
In explicit our research reveals that when operating in an electrical energy community of limited measurement corresponding to Senegal’s 1GW national grid, relying on CCGTs to significantly expand the network capability would be extraordinarily expensive in all attainable eventualities.
Cost variations between the technologies are explained by numerous components. First of all, scorching climates negatively impression the output of gasoline turbines greater than it does that of gas engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated access to low-cost home fuel, the operating prices turn out to be much less impactful than the investment costs. In other phrases, as a outcome of low gas prices decrease operating prices, it is financially sound for the nation to rely on ICE energy vegetation, which are cheaper to construct.
Technology modularity also performs a key function. Senegal is anticipated to require an additional 60-80 MW of era capability each year to have the ability to meet the rising demand. This is much decrease than the capacity of typical CCGTs vegetation which averages 300-400 MW that should be inbuilt one go, resulting in pointless expenditure. Engine power vegetation, then again, are modular, which implies they are often constructed precisely as and when the country wants them, and additional prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The mannequin reveals that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops at the expense of ICE-gas, it will lead to as a lot as 240 million dollars of additional cost for the system by 2035. The price difference between the applied sciences can even increase to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal additionally chooses to build new renewable energy capacity throughout the next decade.
Risk-managing potential fuel infrastructure delays
The development of gas infrastructure is a posh and prolonged endeavour. Program delays usually are not uncommon, causing gas provide disruptions that may have a huge financial impression on the operation of CCGT crops.
Nigeria knows one thing about that. Only final 12 months, important gasoline provide issues have brought on shutdowns at some of the country’s largest gas turbine energy plants. Because Gas turbines function on a steady combustion process, they require a continuing supply of fuel and a stable dispatched load to generate consistent power output. If the supply is disrupted, shutdowns occur, putting a fantastic pressure on the overall system. ICE-Gas plants on the opposite hand, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their versatile operating profile, they have been in a place to maintain a a lot higher degree of availability
The examine took a deep dive to analyse the financial influence of 2 years delay in the gas infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to invest into gasoline engines, the value of fuel delay would be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in further cost.
Whichever method you look at it, new ICE-Gas generation capacity will minimize the total cost of electrical energy in Senegal in all possible eventualities. If Senegal is to satisfy electrical energy demand growth in a cost-optimal method, no much less than 300 MW of new ICE-Gas capability shall be required by 2026.